A 10-SKU FMCG packaging portfolio, modeled against real UK EPR base fees and the confirmed Plastic Packaging Tax rate — showing current liability, where the RAG-rating shift hits hardest by 2028, and which material switches pay for themselves fastest.
£0
Annual liability avoided by 2028 through optimized material switches
2026 liability (today)–
2028 liability if unchanged–
2028 liability, optimized–
01 · Why 2028 matters more than 2026
EPR RAG MODULATION — PLASTIC RED RATING MULTIPLIER
EPR base fees are flat in Year 1 (2025-26). From 2026-27, fees modulate by recyclability rating — and the confirmed penalty on red-rated plastic grows sharply: from a 20% surcharge in 2026 to a full 100% surcharge by 2028. Portfolios that don't act now inherit a compounding cost, not a one-off.
02 · Portfolio breakdown by SKU
RAG RATING = SIMPLIFIED PROXY FOR DEFRA'S RAM METHODOLOGY
Each SKU's rating and total EPR + PPT liability, current vs. 2028 projection if nothing changes.
SKU
Material
Recycled %
2026 RAG
2026 liability
2028 RAG
2028 liability
03 · Material switch optimization
£250K BUDGET · KNAPSACK-OPTIMIZED SKU SELECTION
Ranked by return per £ spent on the switch, funding the SKUs that cut 2028 liability fastest within a fixed budget — rather than spreading investment evenly.
SKU
Switch cost
Annual saving (2028)
Payback
New RAG
Funded
Funding – of – eligible SKU switches costs – and saves –/year by 2028 — a payback of roughly –.